LEGITIMATE INFLUENCE

KEY FACTS ANDALUSIAN ELECTIONS #2D

Low turnout: With over 99% of the ballots counted, total turnout was 58,65%, down more than 5 points from 63,94% in 2015. It has been the second lowest ever seen in an Andalusian election.

1.KEY ASPECTS

 

  • Low turnout: With over 99% of the ballots counted, total turnout was 58,65%, down more than 5 points from 63,94% in 2015. It has been the second lowest ever seen in an Andalusian election.

 

  • The Socialists (PSOE-A) have won the elections, with 33 seats. However, they have lost 14 seats from the last election in 2015 and it is their worst result ever. They may not have enough support to head the regional government, after an uninterrupted ruling of 36 years.

 

  • The conservative Popular Party (PP) came in second place at 26 seats. Despite their loss of seven seats from 2015, they have managed to hold on as second most voted party and have the possibility of forming a government if they reach the necessary agreements.

 

  • The liberal center-right Ciudadanos was the third most-voted party, with 21 seats. They have more than doubled their representation in comparison with 2015 with 12 additional seats.

 

  • Adelante Andalucía – the regional branch of Podemos, in a joint list with the left-wing Izquierda Unida – was the fourth group with 17 seats but has not achieved the expected results (has lost 3 seats).

 

  • The rise of a fifth party: For the first time, a far-right party, Vox, has won seats in one of the country’s regional parliaments. They will enter the Andalusian parliament with 12 seats and nearly 11% of the vote (almost400.ooo votes).

 

Possible coalitions and relevance: 

  • An unprecedented coalition made up of the Center right and far-right parties (Popular Party, Ciudadanos and Vox) would obtain 59 seats, obtaining the absolute majority  (threshold is at55 seats). A left-wing coalition by PSOE-A and Adelante Andalucía would only add up to 50 seats, falling short of the required minimum for an absolute majority.

 

  • The upcoming weeks are key both for the region and at national level as regards the possibility of an early calling on for elections. After these results the European, regional and local elections to be held in May will present a greater dose of uncertainty.

 

2. RESULTS

SEATS

POSSIBLE COALITIONS

 

POSSIBLE COALITIONS

SEATS

PP + Ciudadanos + Vox59
PSOE + Ciudadanos54
PSOE + Adelante Andalucía50
PP + Ciudadanos47
Absolute majority: 55

 

Vinces